Forecast for 2021?
With the hindsight we may say with assurance that no one of great pundits, politicians and university professor predicted the hurtful, fretting and downright disheartening events of 2020 with its coronavirus pandemic and relative negative ramifications. Shall we then trust any forecast for 2021?
The experts who write for The Economist traditionally presented their view about what is to unfold in a symbolic matter (see the picture beside). It is up to us how we interpret those signs. Since we have different backgrounds and come to think about the future using various fact sets and approaches to examine them it is likely that we will drum up various scenarios that point to disparate directions.
There are, however, several shades of the future which seem to be inevitable in a sense. In last November the leaders of China, Japan, and 13 other Asian-Pacific countries created the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the world’s largest trading zone. It looks like the center of the global economy would move even closer to the South China Sea in 2021. Millions of American businesses cannot pay rent to continue running their activities. Millions of American citizens can no longer cover living expenses and are on the brink of losing a house or an apartment. We may expect, therefore, that some dire times for the US economy are about to present themselves. The United Kingdom’s economic performance in 2020 was woeful. We may argue how many decades ago anything as bad happened to the British economy. It does not change the fact that domestic troubles may cause some unexpected political decisions with grieving international consequences.
Given that China is split in at least two factions: Xi Jinping’s state-military group and Li Keqiang’s group closely connected with the US Democratic Party and the USA is far from being united (with warring sides of the Trump and Biden supporters), given also the instability in the Middle East, India’s security concerns, sanctions against Russia, etc. the world in 2021 may be lucky to avoid any major military conflict.
Money is an instrument of economic policy. If money is issued for investments in infrastructure, human capital, factories, agricultural projects, etc. it makes an economy grow. For the US elites dollar emissions have become an instrument of global control not a sustainable and well-balanced economic strategy. This has resulted in the current economic crisis. It looks like the only option is to divide the world into several regions with their own investment currencies and let the investments work again relying on new technologies. The elites, as a consequence, would lose control. They intend to regain the grip on the global economy through compelling all the businesses to operate via digital platforms that are under their command. Whether they would manage to pull this off the time will show. When something is divided a lot of unforeseen outcomes may come up. King Lear from William Shakespeare’s play was convinced he was doing the right thing dividing his kingdom between two loving daughters and disinheriting and disavowing the third one. The end of the story was tragic as we all well remember. King Lear based his judgement on what he was told. He was fooled by nice words of his unscrupulous and cunning elder daughters and failed to capture what was untold but deeply felt in Cordelia’s heart. In Cordelia’s, the third daughter’s, words: “Unhappy that I am, I cannot heave, My heart into my mouth. I love your majesty, According to my bond, no more nor less”.